We asked fantasy football experts Gene Clemons and Michael Salfino to give us their Top 5 picks for 2024 fantasy football drafts. Because it’s never too early to begin prep!
Michael Salfino: Hold on to your hats, because I have some surprises. I’ll go five to one for dramatic effect.
5. Kyren Williams, Rams, RB: Let’s just bottom line it: nine games, 184 points, 20.3 points per game in full PPR. He’s averaging over five yards per carry. He’s tied to a great coach who believes in a bell cow. He’s the goal line back, the early-down back and the third-down back. He’s had four games of 20-plus carries and two games of at least six catches. That’s diversity. He’s hyper efficient in both conventional metrics (yards per carry, 5.04) and advanced. As for the latter, he’s No. 1 in forced missed tackles per game and No. 1 in success rate (min. 100 carries) at 47.8% (where the average is 36.6% for running backs). Yes, he’s beating both Raheem Mostert and Christian McCaffrey. I don’t love the size (listed under 200 pounds) nor the draft pedigree but he did go to Notre Dame so he’s clearly talented. Plus he handled kickoff returns in the NFL which means he’s super athletic even for an RB. Best of all, Williams will be playing his age 24 season.
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4. CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys, WR: I’m a QB-centric drafter, which means the quarterback is a box I have to check with a highly-ranked WR and Lamb gets that box checked with Dak Prescott, who probably is so overrated he’s underrated now. Lamb needed a break-out season to cement himself as a true fantasy alpha and he got it. He’s on pace for 170 targets and 1,639 yards. Lamb is everything Justin Jefferson is with more goal-line equity and a healthier QB/fewer questions at the position. We don’t even know if Kirk Cousins (Achilles) is on the Vikings in 2024.
3. Tyreek Hill, Dolphins, WR: Probably the most dangerous player I’ve ever seen and I’ve been watching football intensely since the 1970s. He’s on the verge of aging out on paper (heading into his age 30 season) but speed lives for a long time in players and he’s also so perfectly proportioned that he seems to defy the hits and twists and turns that knock out 99% of receivers for extended periods. I expect Hill’s prime to last at least two more seasons and probably three. Hill’s also tied to a top playcaller and his quarterback situation is stable — it works. And he’s clearly the alpha but has enough around him that the defense can’t devote too much manpower to stopping him. They just hope to contain him. And they can’t even do that for the 60-to-70 plays.
2. Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals, WR: I expect Joe Burrow to be fully healthy; he’s undersized and not durable, so there is always some risk here…but the upside is worth it. We need to see them both healthy for a full season, which has not been the case the past two years. But if it happens, 100 receptions for 1,800 yards and 15 touchdowns is the expectation. Chase is also the perfect age and very likely to have multiple seasons better than any he’s had ahead of him. We can’t say that about Hill.
1. Christian McCaffrey, 49ers, RB: He’s going to be playing his age 28 season. I can live with that even at pick 1.1. Maybe he starts — almost imperceptibly — some decline, but there is so much room here for that. He’s the true MVP of the league because he doesn’t need anyone to get the ball into his hands. And like Marshall Faulk before, as Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski said then about Faulk, McCaffrey is the queen on the chessboard. It’s him and him alone who makes the Niners so difficult-to-impossible (when everyone is healthy) to defend. Yes, you have twice the injury risk as with a wide receiver but no receiver is going to score the 420 points that McCaffrey is on pace to compile in 2023.
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Gene Clemons: Salfino, these are all legitimate options for a 2024 fantasy football top 5 — and while we have some similarities in our lists I definitely think we have some different philosophies around the selections. While I understand that so many in the fantasy world have shifted their focus from running backs to receivers, I still believe that the easiest route to fantasy football victory is through the ball carriers. I also believe more in those with Tank Davis-level knockout explosiveness or Bud Crawford overwhelming production, so that is where my top picks lead me.
I will be going 1-to-5, just to shake it all up.
1. Christian McCaffrey, 49ers, RB: The only thing that could (or should) possibly scare anyone about McCaffrey is injury, but even with the extensive history you have to hold on and hit the submit button on draft day. His speed, agility, vision and low-key toughness — mixed with the best play caller in the business — is a match made in fantasy heaven and if you drafted him this year you have reaped the benefits. He also possesses that nuclear option to take it the distance every time he touches the ball and the fact that there are three legitimate pass catchers playing with him means he never has to worry about overloaded boxes. If he did, he has one of the best offensive lines in the game to run behind. McCaffrey will likely never touch that 1000/1000 mark again — mostly because the 49ers have ample people to throw the ball to — but you can almost stamp him for 1400/500 over the next couple seasons, barring injury. That does not include the 20 plus touchdowns. Not only is he RB1, he has separated himself from the RB2 so much that many, Salfino included, have several receivers ahead of the RB2 position.
2. Tyreek Hill, Dolphins WR: This has been the year of the Cheetah. Regardless of what you think about Tua as a quarterback there is no denying the impact that Hill has when he’s on the field. There are some receivers in the NFL who get heavy targets and I sit back and wonder why they throw the ball to them so much. In Hill’s case, I find myself wondering why they don’t throw it to him more. That is a crazy statement when you consider that he has been targeted 302 times since being traded to Miami in 2022. He has a legitimate chance at 2000 yards because he has that home run hitting ability that many of the top receivers lack. He can catch a hitch flip around and go for 80, he can take a reverse and go for 80, and of course he can simply blow past your secondary and catch an 80-yard bomb. It’s indefensible! As a defensive back how do you combat his skillset? He is short, compact and quick, so it’s nearly impossible to jam him at the line because if you miss, it’s six. If you back off him he may have 15 receptions for 200 yards because of his ability to run after the catch. Very similar to McCaffrey in San Francisco, Hill is the straw that stirs the drink.
3. De’Von Achane, Dolphins RB: Having two players from the same team in the top 5 sounds crazy at first — but it’s happening right now. In fact, it’s happening with this team. Hill is WR1 and Raheem Mostert is RB2 (shamelessly I would like to take a victory lap on Mostert as the entire fantasy world told me I was crazy for having him as a top tier RB in my mid-season re-rankings). The only reason he is there is because Achane has missed so many games this season. He possesses Tyreek Hill-level explosiveness and the agility to make defenders miss at all levels. Mostert has been a fantasy winner this season but with an offseason in the strength and conditioning program, a full season in this offense under his belt and the knowledge that he can be dynamic at this level, Achane will ascend. The best part is that he won’t need to increase his workload to ascend to RB2 status, he simply needs to stay healthy. Mostert averages 5 yards per carry and 7.7 yards per reception. Achane averages 9.2 yards per carry and 6.8 yards per reception. He has nine touchdowns this season; Mostert has 14 touchdowns on 128 more touches. I predict that these touches equal out and Achane’s ability shines through in an offense that defenses cannot afford to stack the box against.
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4. Kyren Williams, Rams RB: I have definitely been converted into a Williams believer — but, more importantly, the Rams coaching staff and quarterback are Williams believers. He does not hit the home run as often as the others on my list but he does hit a lot of triples. The play by play normally reads “12 yard rush,” “9 yard rush,” “18 yard rush.” There are a lot of strong runs mixed in with the normal running back production. So he doesn’t knock you out with one punch but he will stop the fight with an accumulation of strong jabs. He does everything well and that keeps him on the field and — as Salfino mentioned — there is no committee, so he gets the lion’s share of the touches out of the backfield. He also has a receiving corps that demands respect, which keeps him from facing loaded boxes. He and the offense as a whole will only get better as they transition from what they were to what they will be. Next season this unit could be firing on all cylinders and if he avoids injury Williams will be a major beneficiary of that.
5. Justin Jefferson, Vikings WR: I am not sure why people are discounting Jefferson like his production was a fluke but I can’t forget how he started this season — 33 receptions, 543 yards and three touchdowns. That was a pace similar to what Hill is on in Miami. So I can’t just quit him because he had an injury that should not have any lingering effects in 2024. Whatever quarterback they end up with next season, they will quickly understand that the quickest route to job security is to throw the ball to Jefferson. Yes the unknown about his quarterback is a little scary, but imagine if Cousins is back and healthy — it will be business as usual. Additionally, there will be a bunch of quarterbacks to choose from in free agency or trade who could come in and have immediate success with Jefferson. Prove to me that he is not still the elite of the elite in fantasy. Until then he will be in my top 5.
Salfino: All ranking ties need to be broken for WRs because, as you illustrate yourself, two of the top five players in 2024 were zeroRBs (meaning taken outside of the top five rounds — actually, well outside, with Achane at overall pick 124 the last week of draft season and Williams overall pick 206). But if you hit big on an early RB, that’s the cleanest path to winning, I agree. I get wanting to feel like you left your draft with a top RB even though that strategy is generally minus-EV.
But I can’t think about Achane even in the first round if Raheem Mostert is still on the roster — and why won’t he be? Is Achane going to get the goal line work irrespective of Mostert? Very likely he won’t. Is he going to be the every-third-down back given how he can be overpowered on blitzes? that’s more likely than him getting goal line — but still unlikely. I will never take a non-goal-line RB in the top 5. It’s an automatic DQ. Then you add the fact that he’s already had three injuries that caused missed games on barely any touches — it’s hard to just ignore given his (lack of) size. And, yes, I have pretty much ignored it with Williams, but Williams overwhelms size concerns with his true bell-cow usage and highly leveraged touches.
As for Jefferson, not only is there massive QB uncertainty at this moment but there’s also the fact that Ja’Marr Chase already has a great QB. Plus Chase is a better player than Jefferson. Everyone at LSU knew that. Every scout knew that. Chase certainly knows that and he’s modest about his own ability, at least by WR standards. And this is not to knock Jefferson. He’s great. But he’s not the dynamic touchdown scorer from anywhere on the field like Chase is. Chase has averaged a TD every nine catches, Jefferson one every 13. Touchdown scoring ability is one of my advanced fantasy analytics, Gene. I can see Jefferson over Lamb (Jefferson arguably a better player and maybe Cousins is back). But over Chase? I can’t see that at all, and that’s not even factoring whether Burrow is great (I think he probably is, though maybe you disagree because this was not a great year for him, irrespective of health).
Gene: When both backs were healthy, Achance received green zone (10 yard line and in) touches. I believe that is a much better indicator than simply goal line touches based on the frequency compared to being on the goal line. In Week 3 he had an eight-yard touchdown run and four and 10-yard touchdown receptions. He had three and 10-yard touchdown runs in Week 4. In Week 13 he had four and two-yard touchdown runs. Mostert was healthy and available for all of those games. I think it points to Achane’s versatility as a runner and a pass receiver. Injuries are injuries and although they are a concern, we watched CMC, Ekeler and Barkley all get drafted high despite consistent injury issues.
Chase may be better than Jefferson, and I stress the word “may” — just because he was better in college doesn’t mean he is now. Who is better in real football is pretty subjective — fantasy is not. In 2022 Jefferson was WR1, Chase was WR12. In 2021, Chase was third and Jefferson was fourth by only 1.2 fantasy points. As a rookie, Jefferson was WR6 and just a couple points outside the top 5. He did all of this with Kirk Cousins — who nobody considers to be elite but is solid and consistent. Yes Jefferson has question marks behind center but as long as they are competent, he will be a fantasy force.
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(Top photo: Keith Birmingham/MediaNews Group/Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images)
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